Post by account_disabled on Mar 9, 2024 3:14:53 GMT -5
Yet to Putin, the window of opportunity for NATO allies to force a rethink in Washington about the US's role in European defense could be a window of opportunity of a different kind: the opportunity to consolidate his gains in Ukraine, while invading the Baltics under cover of tactical nuclear weapons deployed in Belarus, on the borders of the Baltics, and in Russia itself, also bordering those countries. When I started writing this article, the year I had “pencilled” in for the unthinkable to happen was 2027. By chance, another writer has imagined the same year for a Russian attack on the Baltics. A Russian attack on the Baltics is unlikely, but so was Putin's invasion of Ukraine Such an attack is of course unlikely. But Putin doing what was generally perceived as unlikely is what has put Europe in its present unstable state. Putin had massed 120,000 troops on Ukraine's borders almost a year before the invasion, but until just before it took place, few experts predicted that it would actually happen. Putin may be unpredictable, but so is Trump On the other hand, Putin has to contend with unpredictability too.
When Boris Johnson described Trump in the White House as a “win for the world,” one of his reasons was that the globe needs a leader “whose willingness to use force and sheer unpredictability is a greater deterrent to the enemies of the West.On whatever terms Trump might force a settlement on Ukraine, or make the US a sleeping partner in NATO, he would not take kindly to be made a fool of UK Phone Number by Putin in the eyes of the world. For Trump to bring “peace” to Europe by forcing a settlement on Ukraine, only for Putin to invade the Baltics, might As of now Poland has 460 battle-ready tanks, including 29 US Abrams tanks delivered in January this year. This would be increased by some hundreds by 2027. Poland's current defense minister you have described Poland's army as 187,000 strong. Poland has 48 modern fighter jets, and by the time it came to a conflict in Europe without US support it could likely muster about 150. Some small countries could play a disproportionately large role. Finland has some impressive modern military hardware, a mobilized army of 280,000, and one of the strongest artillery forces in Europe.
In a NATO without the US, France would likely play an active role in expanding the EU's defense role and pressing Germany to do the same. seem enough like that for Trump to provoke a response. Even if Trump started to wind down the US military presence in European NATO countries during his Presidency, disengagement would not happen overnight, and most bases, troops and equipment might actually stay in place, because Trump might accept that they would be conveniently positioned for contingencies around the world. This could mean that US bases remained in place in countries such as Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Turkey and the UK. So Trump's US would still have the means to come to Europe's aid for some years to come, if the will be there. It is highly unlikely that even Trump himself could tell you, today, how he would react to a Russian invasion of the Baltics in 2027. Derrick Wyatt KC. Emeritus pro.
When Boris Johnson described Trump in the White House as a “win for the world,” one of his reasons was that the globe needs a leader “whose willingness to use force and sheer unpredictability is a greater deterrent to the enemies of the West.On whatever terms Trump might force a settlement on Ukraine, or make the US a sleeping partner in NATO, he would not take kindly to be made a fool of UK Phone Number by Putin in the eyes of the world. For Trump to bring “peace” to Europe by forcing a settlement on Ukraine, only for Putin to invade the Baltics, might As of now Poland has 460 battle-ready tanks, including 29 US Abrams tanks delivered in January this year. This would be increased by some hundreds by 2027. Poland's current defense minister you have described Poland's army as 187,000 strong. Poland has 48 modern fighter jets, and by the time it came to a conflict in Europe without US support it could likely muster about 150. Some small countries could play a disproportionately large role. Finland has some impressive modern military hardware, a mobilized army of 280,000, and one of the strongest artillery forces in Europe.
In a NATO without the US, France would likely play an active role in expanding the EU's defense role and pressing Germany to do the same. seem enough like that for Trump to provoke a response. Even if Trump started to wind down the US military presence in European NATO countries during his Presidency, disengagement would not happen overnight, and most bases, troops and equipment might actually stay in place, because Trump might accept that they would be conveniently positioned for contingencies around the world. This could mean that US bases remained in place in countries such as Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Turkey and the UK. So Trump's US would still have the means to come to Europe's aid for some years to come, if the will be there. It is highly unlikely that even Trump himself could tell you, today, how he would react to a Russian invasion of the Baltics in 2027. Derrick Wyatt KC. Emeritus pro.