Post by account_disabled on Feb 19, 2024 23:27:50 GMT -5
The first round of the French legislative elections points to a recomposition of the political map that is certainly not radical, but quite significant. Center right and left virtually tie at around . In a week, strategies and opportunity situations must be defined. Sunday's results leave the following clues. The left unit 1.- The left has not yet recovered a predominant role , obviously, but it is once again weighing in on the balance. The key is unity, ahead of a program that could present discord if it were applied. It is surprising that it is surprising, that is to say. Some liberal analysts did not believe in the response of such a clear social base in favor of a convergence formula. There is still a lot of work to be done, but June 12 may have led the way. The late and fragile unity of the French left Macron's negligence 2.- The presidential party has less capacity to convene than its leader. It shouldn't be surprising either. More than a political formation, the political framework designed by the Elysée is a sum of personal loyalties, short-term political ambitions, escapers from the shipwreck that has suffocated the once majority and decadent parties and last-minute careerists.
A certain carelessness on the part of Macron, a calculated distancing and overconfidence explain his poor results in this first round. An insufficient victory for Macron Le-Pen resistsMarine Le Pen's national-populism confirms her political vigor. With almost 19%, it improves the results of 2017 by five points. Although the Australia Phone Number electoral system asserts its iron ceiling next Sunday, it is evident that the National Regrouping is an inescapable agent of French politics. One factor may contribute to confirming its solidity next Sunday: the Macronists have not yet requested a vote for the left-wing candidates in those duels in which they face the far-right. The myth of republican unity will be shattered. The conservation of power above principles will no longer be covered in tight campaign speeches. Former Gaullists 4.- The conservative right resists with a comfortable 10%, a poor result but very valuable for the current president, who needs it to stop the rise of the left.
Another fiction is about to be diluted: the one that establishes fundamental differences between the modernizing liberalism of Macron and the liberal conservatism of the former Gaullists. Electoral apathy 5.- The accentuated presidential drift is not a unique factor, but it is very important in the low participation (the weakest in the history of the Fifth Republic). Parliament is seen as an institution of relative relevance, either subject to the leadership of the Head of State or, alternatively, as a tool of obstruction of the Elysée. The lack of trust in political institutions provides another element of apathy. The liberal system suffers.with which economists with degrees became mere shamans and fortune tellers filling out pages in means of expression. But their lack of understanding harmed the economy: Rajoy practiced austerity and it has taken Spain a decade to recover employment that now, since 2019 and with a different economic policy, has taken only two years. With Zapatero we also fell into that ill-fated austerity and his freezes were of no use, but quite the opposite, because he stopped demand via income as much as was needed. There are always two alternatives: an economic policy that improves the majority.
A certain carelessness on the part of Macron, a calculated distancing and overconfidence explain his poor results in this first round. An insufficient victory for Macron Le-Pen resistsMarine Le Pen's national-populism confirms her political vigor. With almost 19%, it improves the results of 2017 by five points. Although the Australia Phone Number electoral system asserts its iron ceiling next Sunday, it is evident that the National Regrouping is an inescapable agent of French politics. One factor may contribute to confirming its solidity next Sunday: the Macronists have not yet requested a vote for the left-wing candidates in those duels in which they face the far-right. The myth of republican unity will be shattered. The conservation of power above principles will no longer be covered in tight campaign speeches. Former Gaullists 4.- The conservative right resists with a comfortable 10%, a poor result but very valuable for the current president, who needs it to stop the rise of the left.
Another fiction is about to be diluted: the one that establishes fundamental differences between the modernizing liberalism of Macron and the liberal conservatism of the former Gaullists. Electoral apathy 5.- The accentuated presidential drift is not a unique factor, but it is very important in the low participation (the weakest in the history of the Fifth Republic). Parliament is seen as an institution of relative relevance, either subject to the leadership of the Head of State or, alternatively, as a tool of obstruction of the Elysée. The lack of trust in political institutions provides another element of apathy. The liberal system suffers.with which economists with degrees became mere shamans and fortune tellers filling out pages in means of expression. But their lack of understanding harmed the economy: Rajoy practiced austerity and it has taken Spain a decade to recover employment that now, since 2019 and with a different economic policy, has taken only two years. With Zapatero we also fell into that ill-fated austerity and his freezes were of no use, but quite the opposite, because he stopped demand via income as much as was needed. There are always two alternatives: an economic policy that improves the majority.